Harris Flips Betting Odds on Trump after Winning Debate
What happened to the Trump Harris betting odds during the first TV debate? Just a week after Trump had taken back the lead from Harris, the Democratic candidate has managed to reverse the order again.
Bookmakers saw favorite win the TV Duel
In general, the bookmakers had Kamala Harris as a clear favorite for the TV duel, and as ever so often, they were right.
News stations commended Harris for her controlled performance in front of a world audience. She presented herself as a fresh start for the American people with a positive outlook for the future.
Top Casinos with Betting Markets
Trump on the other hand kept talking about illegal immigration, a topic where he know his followers will be happy about no matter what he says.
However, he was getting fact-checked rapidly several times. The nonsense story about Haitian migrants eating their own pets in Ohio is just one example.
Of course, Trump complained afterwards and blamed the moderators for putting things straight, claiming he fought one against three.
How the TV Debate Changed the US Election Betting Odds
Just a week ago, Trump took over the lead again in the election betting markets. Hours before the debate, his odds were around 1.7 to win the election, while Harris hovered around 2.1.
However, all the bookmakers expected Kamala Harris to win the debate. According to news stations and quick polls, they were right.
Trump had probably profited from courts postponing his sentencing in his hush money case until after the election.
However, the endorsement of Dick and Liz Cheney plus – eventually – Taylor Swift have had much more influence on the odds.
Hours after the debate, when the smoke cleared, Harris emerged with 1.8 odds to win the election, while Trump is now down to 2.1.
Bettors better than Polls
Remarkably, betting markets have been more reliable in predicting election outcomes than poll. Since 1866, they’ve been wrong only once in correctly predicting the outcome of an American election.
So now, it looks like the election is for Harris to win or lose. If we take a look at the popular vote betting odds, things are way clearer. The Democratic Party is 1.3 to win, while the Republicans are a 3.5 underdog.
But the truth is, of course, that the election is still wide open. Democrats have won the popular vote almost every time in the last couple of decades, but that’s unfortunately not how “democracy” works in the US.
We are still two months away from the election, and the betting odds will show us how much things can change during that time period.
Kamala Harris / Donald Trump Odds to Win the US Election
As Forbes magazine reports, Kamala Harris‘ chances of winning in November have risen from roughly 47% to 51%, while Trump’s odds to win went down to under 50%.
Still, there are markets that still see them head-to-head, which might nor reflect last night’s debate, but probably does reflect the overall sentiment in the country.
How much money are People Betting on the US Election?
It is impossible to say. Market giant Betfair reported 2.2 billion dollars being placed on the US election in 2020. Keep in mind, that’s just one provider.
Overall, we can safely assume that there will be tens of billions of dollars placed on the outcome of the US election 2024 worldwide. And that’s not even counting the crypto bets.
Interestingly, these bets are still illegal in many US states, although recent court decisions might have paved the way for legal betting on political issues.
Conclusion
Yes, Kamala Haris has won the debate. Even Fox News couldn’t find a way to somehow declare Trump the winner.
No, this wasn’t the deciding moment for the election. The reason: You can lose an election during a TV debate, but you can’t win it. Trump lost the debate, but not the election.
That’s because probably zero of his voters changed their minds yesterday. They never would.
So, it’ll all come down to the swing states, even if there will be a TV debate every week from now on. And the swing states have not moved in any direction.
If there is one safe bet on the US election 2024, it’s that it is going to be close.
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